How to use the data in this article: Keep in mind unless noted the real estate market data is the entire Denver MLS. The Denver MLS is basically the Denver Metro area north to Boulder, South just about Colorado springs, East to Fort Morgan and west to the mountains. There are added listings outside those areas but most of it consists of those areas. The Denver Foothills like Evergreen, Morrison and Golden are also part of this MLS. If any of the data or charts are focused on a particular area it will be noted. 2019 was a great year for buyers and sellers. In most cases both parties were very happy with their real estate transaction. Everyone should know it is absolutely impossible to buy or sell at the top or bottom of the market. A buyer should be happy as long as their home continues to appreciate and a seller should be happy to make money on their sale. This is a numbers game and it is important to find the best real estate agent that understands numbers and has the ability to price the subject property properly.
The Average Days On Market Explained
Average Days on Market Graph
The average days on the market across the entire Denver MLS has been relatively low again the entire year. Just as it has been for the prior 3 years. The average is calculated from the time it was listed in the MLS until the time it went under contract. This is all residential properties and all prices. June is usually the shortest amount of days on market and 2019 was no different. With about 26 days on market on average that is a sign of a very healthy and active seller’s market. Days on market is one of the primary indicators of buyer/seller market indicator. Anything under 30 days is a stellar metric. Actually real estate agents and sellers are happy with anything under 60 days on average.
The peaks and valleys of this metric is normal. The Denver MLS really doesn’t have a “selling season” per se anymore but the market always sees this slight and negligible variance every year. These grievances are not enough to be concerned in any way or an indication of a drastic market shift. The real estate agents are seeing a slight shift in the buyer’s direction but nothing to be concerned about and will be discussed in a moment.
December/January are always the months with longest days on market. Buyers are always busy with other things like holidays, vacations and school. It is not at all uncommon to see linger days on market. Although 45 days on market is not really considered long. The one thing about buyers in winter months is they are definitely more serious about buying if they are looking at homes they will most likely be pulling the trigger.
Number of Active Listings Graph
Number of Active Listings Explained
Number of active listings across the entire MLS tells a little more information about the current real estate market conditions. The thing to understand about how the number of active listings fits into the market data is in respect to supply and demand. As long as other indicators such as sale price and days on market are in step with active listings it won’t necessarily tell the entire story but will help us understand the direction the market may be heading in the future. If the number if active listings is going down and the average sale price is also going down it could signal we are entering a buyer’s market. Also if the active listings are going down and days on market are going up that could also signal a buyer’s market as well. That will most likely force the average sale price down as well since sellers will need to lower their price to stay competitive and sell in the prime window selling opportunity.
The Graph above is telling us that with this number of active listings to continue in a strong seller market the market would like to see a much shorter days on market and looking below at the the average sale price we would like to see a sharper rise in price to signal a strong seller’s market. Although through the year the market did see an increase in value at a good rate compared to normal appreciation in the past. Also real estate agents are seeing buyers just give up. Lower inventory plays a mental game and takes its toll on buyers. Some buyers just throw in the towel after not finding anything they like in their price point.
With that being said it is still a great time to buy a home. It will cost you more to buy in the Denver and the mountains than it will in Alabama but the market seems like it will hold value in years to come.
Average Sale Price Denver MLS Explained 2019
Average Sales Price Entire Denver MLS Graph 2019
Average sale price is the easiest of all real estate market indicators to decipher and is usually the go-to for people that only know the basics about real estate data. It is also probably the truest indicator of market direction. However this metric tends to lag behind other indicators we have to track the market. Just like the times the sale prices increase at a fast pace and homes don’t appraise because appraisers go off closed sale prices. If a home goes under contract it usually takes about 40 days to close on that price. Sometimes it lags behind and the comps the appraisers use don’t truly reflect what the market is currently offering on homes. This indicator is the same problem. The list price is not recorded until that sale is entered into the public data base. This means the “current sale price” isn’t current at all. It is actually between 30-60 trailing behind. The homes selling today won’t be recorded until the end of January. The other indicators are much more “real time”. Our market ran into this problem in the summer of 2016 when the market was moving so fast with multiple offers wit those offers being over asking price it was hard for appraisers to keep up and find true market value. Although we didn’t have many home not appraise we had a few and it was almost a gamble for many banks and buyers to pay the prices they were offering.
Moving forward as far as sale price and value it seems like with all the other indicators and the increase of people moving to Colorado we will most likely see prices and value continue to rise. Highly doubtful at the same rate as the last 5 years but we will see normal to above normal appreciation. Is still seems like buying a home is still a great investment and will continue to be in the years to come. Especially throughout the Denver area and Denver Foothills where the market has seen the greatest increase in values.
Real Time Data in By Area
Evergreen, CO Compared to the Entire MLS
Georgetown, CO Compared to the Entire MLS
Morrison, CO Compared to the Entire MLS
Golden, CO Compared to the Entire MLS
Lakewood Compared to the Entire MLS
Denver Metro Compared to the Entire MLS
Conifer, CO compared to the Entire MLS
To Sum Up The 2019 Real Estate Market Moving Into 2020
The 2019 real estate market was another stellar year. Real estate agents stayed very busy selling a huge amount of inventory (not as much as previous year) and total sales volume. Moving into the new year we most likely see the trends continue to show an increase in value, decrease in inventory and short days on market. We are moving closer to a buyer’s market but in most areas we will stay in the seller market territory. It is still a great time to be a buyer and a seller. Since most folks are buying and selling at the same time it is a zero sum game. Granted there are some areas that are better markets than others but a real estate agent can help you determine the areas that you will be able to upgrade or downgrade in and where the buyers seem to be flowing. As your real estate agent I can help you with all that and make sure you aren’t leaving any money on the table when selling your home and to make sure you aren’t over paying if you are buying a home.
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